Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2598…40a3 world 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,320per market
Trades / day136.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48,970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$2,166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.4% +8.0% 90% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 10 +19.4% +8.0% 90% 50% -5.1%
≤90d 10 +19.4% +8.0% 90% 50% -5.1%
all 10 +19.4% +8.0% 90% 50% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.0% 50% -5.1%
10% -2.3% 40% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -11.8% 30% -22.5%
20% -20.4% 30% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$473 vs −$2,166 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48,970
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8,320
Trades / day136.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $48,897 $48,970 +$74 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $360 +$80 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $428 +$2 +1%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $24,300 +$1,752 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $2,763 +$147 +5%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $748 +$582 +78%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $785 +$555 +71%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $4,386 +$58 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $1,258 +$683 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3,768 +$398 +11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3,827 −$2,166 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $86 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $126 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $229 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $75 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,819 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 91¢ $9,684 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,612 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $428 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,830 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $54 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $2,033 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $44 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,922 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,970.08 · official $49,019.13 (match) · 139 history records