Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25a1…16e8 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-2%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days−$269
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$218
world 6% +$117
other 1% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -39.5% -45.3% 33% 33% -21.2%
≤30d 25 -27.9% -34.7% 40% 40% -6.9%
≤90d 32 -26.2% -33.2% 41% 38% -9.9%
all 32 -26.2% -33.2% 41% 38% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 38% -9.9%
10% -39.6% 34% -18.6%
15% -45.5% 31% -26.4%
20% -50.8% 25% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$60 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage69d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $40 +$87 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $415 +$233 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $205 +$104 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $122 +$133 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$70 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $123 +$18 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $112 +$43 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $218 +$235 +108%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $149 +$56 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $40 +$61 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 20 $122 −$53 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 19 $90 −$80 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 19 $80 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 19 $30 +$7 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $155 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $368 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $280 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $209 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $309 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $112 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records