Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25a4…2694 crypto 184 markets active 6d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,960 (-2%) realized −$1,960 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%99W / 85L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$75
14 days−$219
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$822
politics 27% −$4,802
world 22% −$369
other 5% +$2,266
crypto 5% +$401
culture 2% +$702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.7% -5.2% 56% 44% -28.3%
≤30d 48 +0.2% -9.3% 54% 52% -19.4%
≤90d 140 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 46% -27.9%
all 184 +0.9% -8.8% 54% 47% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 47% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 40% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 34% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 29% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$226 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,960
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses99 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage103d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +126%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 −$5 -55%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $127 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $112 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $77 +$52 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $119 −$115 -97%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $52 +$68 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $77 +$42 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $77 +$36 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $56 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $46 +$36 +77%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $536 −$316 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $134 +$113 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $172 +$19 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $76 +$30 +40%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $101 +$77 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$44 +85%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $91 −$90 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $234 −$143 -61%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 29 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 29 $445 −$440 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 29 $206 +$157 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 29 $206 +$137 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $71 −$16 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 19 $52 +$110 +209%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $139 +$47 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 19 $68 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 19 $108 +$74 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 19 $78 +$61 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 19 $42 +$50 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $67 +$57 +86%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 07 $299 −$296 -99%
LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 07 $80 +$14 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 43¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $8 6d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) SELL LOS 100¢ $8 6d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) BUY LOS 50¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $120 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 42¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $18 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1080 history records