Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25a7…8b7c other 428 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,195 (-2%) realized −$25,511 · open +$316
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate69%279W / 127L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,696per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$9,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days+$641
14 days+$724
30 days+$869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$22,131
world 31% +$455
sports 11% −$303
politics 10% −$100
crypto 2% −$579
economics 2% +$27
culture 0% +$6
finance 0% −$11
weather 0% +$7
tech 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +3.3% -6.5% 75% 29% -8.4%
≤30d 89 -1.5% -10.8% 65% 15% -9.1%
≤90d 223 +1.1% -8.6% 71% 10% -9.0%
all 406 -2.3% -11.6% 69% 6% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 6% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 2% -19.9%
15% -27.8% 1% -27.6%
20% -34.9% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$2,196) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$373 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$9,232
Realized−$25,511
Unrealized+$316
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses279 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)406 / 428
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$2,696
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,000 $6,043 +$43 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $1,486 $1,716 +$230 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $152 $188 +$36 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $164 $140 −$24 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $104 $131 +$27 (+26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $86 $118 +$32 (+37%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $101 $112 +$11 (+11%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 85¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $101 $95 −$6 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $101 $79 −$22 (-21%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $68 −$7 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $46 $41 −$6 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,162 −$236 -20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $356 +$43 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,215 +$33 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$11 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $8,705 +$167 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11,605 −$126 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,000 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,029 +$815 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $8,264 −$183 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$3 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5,573 +$172 +3%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$21 +11%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 +$2 +2%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $1,907 +$41 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $2,875 −$116 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5,663 +$51 +1%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $71 +$8 +11%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $12 −$5 -41%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 10 $105 −$12 -12%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 08 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 08 $100 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $116 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $8,505 +$45 +0%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $314 +$110 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,980 +$38 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $476 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $126 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $420 −$26 -6%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 06 $3,987 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 05 $205 −$97 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $248 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $77 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $951 −$1 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $2,969 +$24 +1%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 03 $732 −$14 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $7,476 +$38 +0%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 03 $3,339 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No $56 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,653 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $150 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No $4 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $309 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $186 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $56 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $71 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $296 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $553 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No $8 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $157 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $399 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $355 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $1 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $100 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $72 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $215 30h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL 49¢ $113 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $300 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,231.95 · official $9,387.53 · 3500 history records