Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x25a7…a4c8 other 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,669 (+0%) realized +$7,631 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate85%577W / 104L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$2,355per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$26,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$37
14 days+$76
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$7,466
politics 7% +$303
finance 7% +$378
world 1% +$18
tech 0% −$35
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.3% -20.7% 88% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 84 -16.6% -24.5% 82% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 472 +15.9% +4.9% 84% 4% -9.4%
all 681 +12.5% +1.8% 85% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 4% -9.1%
10% -8.0% 4% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 3% -25.7%
20% -25.0% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,625) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.76 per $1 lost it wins $6.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$26,163
Realized+$7,631
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses577 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)681 / 705
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$2,355
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,985 $10,000 +$15 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $7,711 $7,721 +$10 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,985 $4,998 +$12 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $646 $646 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $460 $460 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $433 $433 −$0 (-0%)
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $368 $368 −$0 (-0%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $328 $328 −$0 (-0%)
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $291 $291 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $460 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $369 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $467 $0 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $224 $0 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $1,830 +$9 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $702 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $359 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $452 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $249 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $1,855 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $2,126 +$4 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $169 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $571 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $264 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $264 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $1,472 +$4 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $537 +$2 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $222 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $481 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $333 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $451 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $12,250 +$20 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $473 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $297 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $341 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $330 $0 +0%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1,069 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,252 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $4,985 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,491 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $14,672 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $961 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1,354 +$1 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $9,160 +$9 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $156 5m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5m
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 7m
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 7m
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 8m
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 15h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 15h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 16h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 20h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 20h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 22h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 25h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $271 25h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $147 25h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 25h
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 25h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $226 25h
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $266 25h
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $126 25h
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $126 25h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 28h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 28h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 28h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 32h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 35h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $996 35h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $6,605 2d
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $224 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,162.90 · official $26,162.90 (match) · 3500 history records