Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x25af…a4ca crypto 88 markets active 6d ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+1%) realized +$89 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%73W / 10L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$87
14 days−$71
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$57
other 30% −$46
world 14% +$61
economics 8% +$2
politics 6% +$8
weather 3% +$1
finance 2% +$2
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.8% -31.0% 75% 0% -35.3%
≤30d 7 -12.3% -20.6% 86% 0% -17.2%
≤90d 22 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 9% -9.0%
all 83 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 6% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -8.2%
10% -17.9% 2% -16.9%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.0%
20% -33.1% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses73 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage570d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $91 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 93¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 90¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $127 +$3 +2%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $80 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $91 −$91 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $274 +$17 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 18? May 21 $169 +$1 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 05 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 05 $42 +$8 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $49 +$1 +1%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? May 05 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? May 05 $79 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 05 $190 +$19 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 15 $88 +$38 +43%
Will Iran strike Georgia by March 31? Apr 11 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $26 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 22 $330 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 01 $222 +$4 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Biden" during Fed chair announcement? Jan 30 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace? Jan 30 $129 +$5 +4%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 06 $102 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 06 $110 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 06 $211 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 23 $218 $0 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in November? Nov 11 $223 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 10 $95 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 09 $223 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 06 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 06 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Oct 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 13? Oct 19 $50 +$61 +122%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $100 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first? Aug 17 $45 +$4 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 11 $25 $0 +1%
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 17 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 90¢ $4 6d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $80 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $58 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $19 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $170 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $64 29d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 29d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $99 29d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $37 30d
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 30d
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 30d
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 30d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $104 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $60 42d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $135 60d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $55 60d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? BUY No 91¢ $27 60d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 60d
Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 60d
Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $101 60d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL No 73¢ $126 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of April 13 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 66d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 85¢ $42 66d
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 66d
Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 75d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $26 86d
Will Iran strike Georgia by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $54 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.27 · official $207.27 (match) · 478 history records