Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25b2…4edb world 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-3%) realized −$31 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day80.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$65
other 11% −$22
politics 8% +$20
weather 4% −$2
tech 2% +$7
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -12.6% -20.9% 26% 10% -16.5%
≤30d 69 -12.6% -20.9% 26% 10% -16.5%
≤90d 69 -12.6% -20.9% 26% 10% -16.5%
all 69 -12.6% -20.9% 26% 10% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 10% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 9% -24.5%
15% -35.4% 9% -31.8%
20% -41.7% 3% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)69 / 95
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day80.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $125 $127 +$2 (+2%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 94¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? No 92¢ 89¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 84¢ 76¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 92¢ 91¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 84¢ 82¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? Yes 88¢ 76¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 20¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 24? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Yes 29¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $121 +$5 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $6 −$1 -12%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? Jun 23 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 24? Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Jun 22 $3 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -41%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Vox get a cabinet seat in the next Andalusian government? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 24? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 24? Jun 22 $2 $0 -9%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 22 $30 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $9 +$40 +435%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -5%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? Jun 22 $1 $0 -42%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during June 24 Rally? Jun 22 $1 $0 -39%
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -72%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience o Jun 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -88%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $126 4m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $5 6m
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 22¢ $1 19m
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 86¢ $30 42m
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 19¢ $5 47m
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 19¢ $0 47m
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? SELL No 90¢ $26 1h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $61 2h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 66¢ $50 2h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY No 85¢ $11 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 24? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 2h
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 2h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $70 2h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 11h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY No 55¢ $1 11h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY No 55¢ $1 11h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY No 74¢ $1 11h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 58¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $11 11h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 14¢ $2 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 80¢ $5 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.21 · official $657.21 (match) · 220 history records