Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25b6…260a
other · 1482 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$221 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$221 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$221
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1190 / 289
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1479 / 1482
History coverage13d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day163.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 3 History 1479 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$391
14 days−$221
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$5 +449%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% −$92
crypto 22% −$115
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 -38.8% -44.6% 27% 20% -44.0%
≤30d 1479 -8.5% -17.2% 80% 9% -11.0%
≤90d 1479 -8.5% -17.2% 80% 9% -11.0%
all 1479 -8.5% -17.2% 80% 9% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover163.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 9% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 4% -19.6%
15% -32.3% 3% -27.3%
20% -39.0% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $2.07 (match) · 3500 history records