Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25b6…a379
sports · 22 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$22
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 81¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Tristan Schoolkate 55¢ 54¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Ben Shelton 41¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+144%)
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Dane Sweeny 30¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 75¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 30¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Marco Cecchinato 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Felix Auger-Aliassime 69¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Arthur Gea 49¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $8 +$4 +52%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $10 +$5 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $8 +$4 +46%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 +$4 +414%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 81¢ $7 1h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 65¢ $8 1h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 69¢ $8 1h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 55¢ $8 1h
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 30¢ $8 2h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 68¢ $8 2h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 67¢ $3 2h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 67¢ $3 2h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 67¢ $3 2h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 95¢ $10 2h
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Arthur Gea 49¢ $10 2h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $1 4h
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 65¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 53¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 86¢ $1 5h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Marco Cecchinato 26¢ $1 7h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 57¢ $1 7h
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $1 11h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Dane Sweeny 30¢ $1 11h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 19¢ $1 12h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $1 12h
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 88¢ $1 12h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire $1 13h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +25.0% +13.1% 69% 62% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +25.0% +13.1% 69% 62% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +25.0% +13.1% 69% 62% -9.4%
all 16 +25.0% +13.1% 69% 62% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.1% 62% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here +2.2% 50% -18.1%
15% -7.6% 50% -26.0%
20% -16.7% 38% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.74 · official $21.81 (match) · 35 history records