Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x25b8…51da sports 309 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-2%) realized −$66 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%182W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$42
14 days+$61
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$98
other 37% +$20
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 68% -0.9%
≤30d 65 +8.3% -2.0% 77% 71% +0.9%
≤90d 117 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 63% -3.0%
all 305 -6.0% -15.0% 60% 56% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 56% -11.3%
10% -23.1% 44% -19.8%
15% -30.5% 33% -27.6%
20% -37.4% 22% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses182 / 123
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)305 / 309
History coverage170d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies England 84¢ 82¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$2 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 +$6 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 −$5 -30%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 −$10 -66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $20 +$2 +11%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $15 +$8 +52%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$4 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$6 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$5 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$11 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $7 +$9 +124%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $17 +$6 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $35 +$8 +24%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $10 +$4 +44%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $10 +$5 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $25 +$14 +54%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $124 +$106 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY England 84¢ $11 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $15 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 69¢ $5 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 83¢ $10 27h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $22 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $4 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 91¢ $20 3d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 83¢ $15 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $16 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 66¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $15 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 90¢ $45 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 66¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $15 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 100¢ $22 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $23 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 90¢ $20 5d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $5 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 53¢ $5 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $10 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 73¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.37 · official $80.37 (match) · 570 history records