Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x25ba…1eab other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$773 (+42%) realized +$771 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 38L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$13
14 days+$188
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$441
other 46% +$209
sports 7% +$78
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% +$33
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -5.2% -14.3% 36% 36% -7.0%
≤30d 52 +8.8% -1.6% 35% 35% +20.0%
≤90d 53 +19.3% +7.9% 36% 36% +30.2%
all 63 +31.0% +18.5% 40% 40% +44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 40% +44.9%
10% +7.2% 37% +31.0%
15% -3.2% 32% +18.4%
20% -12.7% 29% +6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$8 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$771
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions77
Markets (closed)63 / 140
History coverage592d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 81¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-9%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 50¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 90¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 35¢ 36¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 66¢ 69¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 70¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 82¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 29¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$6 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$13 +157%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +259%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $10 −$5 -47%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +291%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +244%
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Jun 14 $205 −$159 -78%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Jun 14 $157 +$227 +145%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $35 +$16 +44%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 43m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 44m
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 7¢ $1 54m
Will Saudi Arabia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cu BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Iran be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $12 1h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 27¢ $5 2h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $5 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4h
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 90¢ $10 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $10 5h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 11h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 44¢ $2 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $4 19h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 20h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $6 25h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 25h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 25h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.79 · official $499.81 (match) · 317 history records