Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
25 0x25ba…ba75 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$65 (-22%) realized −$195 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% $0
sports 3% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +111.1% +91.0% 33% 33% -54.9%
≤30d 4 +58.4% +43.3% 25% 25% -58.1%
≤90d 4 +58.4% +43.3% 25% 25% -58.1%
all 4 +58.4% +43.3% 25% 25% -58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.3% 25% -58.1%
10% +29.6% 25% -62.1%
15% +17.0% 25% -65.8%
20% +5.6% 25% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$43 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 80¢ $0 $117 +$117 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 0¢ 10¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$55 +533%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.49 · official $180.76 (match) · 17 history records