Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25bb…bc5c world 19 markets active 3d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$138 (+0%) realized +$136 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,473per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$45
economics 11% +$17
other 11% +$42
politics 11% +$8
crypto 6% +$11
finance 6% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 18 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,592) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,626
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,473
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,624 $1,626 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $1,620 +$3 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,619 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,607 +$11 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,603 +$5 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,592 +$11 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,582 +$10 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $1,521 +$15 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $45 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,565 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,548 +$11 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 09 $1,546 +$2 +0%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 05 $1,541 +$5 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 02 $1,505 +$37 +2%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $1,503 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 13 $1,502 +$2 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1,494 +$8 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $1,488 +$6 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,482 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,624 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,568 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,619 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1,607 13d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,603 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,592 21d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $385 23d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 23d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $60 24d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 24d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 24d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $201 24d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $205 24d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $700 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1,521 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $45 31d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $1,565 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $1,548 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,546 48d
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b BUY Yes 100¢ $1,541 52d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $1,505 66d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,503 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,502 75d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,494 78d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,488 96d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $1,482 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,626.13 · official $1,626.13 (match) · 48 history records