Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25bd…1ff4
crypto · 1281 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$4 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1161 / 118
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1279 / 1281
History coverage119d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1279 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +3.6% -6.2% 90% 72% -6.1%
≤30d 99 +3.6% -6.2% 90% 72% -6.1%
≤90d 313 +2.4% -7.3% 88% 82% -7.5%
all 1279 +0.7% -8.9% 91% 20% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 20% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.17 · official $2.04 (match) · 2917 history records