Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25be…0c18 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
world 27% +$6
crypto 13% −$3
politics 11% +$1
sports 5% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -7.9%
all 44 -1.8% -11.1% 41% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage405d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $41 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $35 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 +$3 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 11 $22 $0 -2%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 07 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alessandro Bastoni be named the Champions League Final man of the Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Džumhur May 31 $25 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 29 $25 $0 -1%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 18 $23 $0 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $39 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $1 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $40 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $41 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $41 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $16 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $19 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $2 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $6 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $29 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $8 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $0 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $39 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $39 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $4 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $31 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $1 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $31 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.91 · official $39.91 (match) · 121 history records