Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25c1…43a9 crypto 507 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-5%) realized −$154 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%335W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$153
14 days−$103
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$114
other 27% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -83.0% -84.6% 8% 6% -79.2%
≤30d 165 -16.1% -24.1% 58% 32% -19.0%
≤90d 506 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 31% -15.5%
all 506 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 31% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 31% -15.5%
10% -25.6% 22% -23.6%
15% -32.8% 16% -31.0%
20% -39.4% 12% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses335 / 171
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 507
History coverage72d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 57¢ 46¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 23m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.87 · official $17.98 · 1431 history records