Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x25c5…b628 crypto 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$189 (+4%) realized +$181 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%229W / 119L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$195
14 days+$195
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$181
crypto 22% −$48
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 51% -4.3%
≤30d 79 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 51% -4.3%
≤90d 79 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 51% -4.3%
all 348 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 47% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 47% -6.5%
10% -20.2% 28% -15.5%
15% -27.9% 18% -23.6%
20% -35.0% 10% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses229 / 119
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)348 / 349
History coverage100d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $362 $369 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $676 +$7 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $295 +$65 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $520 +$64 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $155 +$75 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $145 +$7 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $130 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $137 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $378 −$63 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $366 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $366 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $364 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $316 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 85¢ $311 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $359 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $295 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $295 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $289 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 84¢ $289 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $231 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 28¢ $230 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $155 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $145 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $145 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $130 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.35 · official $369.35 (match) · 730 history records