Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25c6…dcac sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,025 (+5%) realized +$1,187 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%76W / 80L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$375
14 days−$143
30 days+$1,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$802
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 53% 53% -15.4%
≤30d 71 +20.1% +8.7% 61% 59% -1.3%
≤90d 119 -6.1% -15.1% 47% 45% -4.9%
all 156 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 47% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% -4.7%
10% -20.9% 47% -13.8%
15% -28.5% 47% -22.2%
20% -35.5% 47% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$98 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$1,187
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses76 / 80
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage107d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Rune Eaters 37¢ 24¢ $333 $212 −$121 (-36%)
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Flame Team 49¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $365 −$360 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $563 −$557 -99%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $335 +$285 +85%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $329 +$291 +89%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $348 +$332 +95%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $325 −$325 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $325 +$255 +79%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $335 −$333 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $338 +$262 +77%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $338 +$242 +72%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $450 −$446 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $305 +$310 +102%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $308 −$307 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $318 +$282 +89%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $250 +$250 +100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $322 −$317 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $356 +$480 +135%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $325 −$320 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $317 +$283 +90%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $445 −$438 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $365 +$278 +76%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $365 +$314 +86%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $370 −$365 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $365 −$360 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $364 +$194 +53%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $367 −$360 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $355 +$318 +90%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $304 +$273 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $650 −$310 -48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $304 +$232 +76%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $304 +$254 +83%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $294 −$290 -99%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $285 +$253 +89%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $244 +$244 +100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $487 +$473 +97%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $231 −$231 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $216 +$9 +4%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $223 +$222 +99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $208 +$192 +92%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $7 +$11 +150%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $162 −$160 -99%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $244 −$240 -98%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ameri Jun 02 $183 +$167 +91%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $209 +$171 +82%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $66 −$13 -20%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $65 −$64 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner May 31 $182 +$127 +70%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $203 −$12 -6%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 37¢ $339 39m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 27¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 34¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 36¢ $113 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 40¢ $103 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 59¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 62¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 54¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 50¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 45¢ $165 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 53¢ $365 2h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 55¢ $304 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 49¢ $73 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 49¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 49¢ $48 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 49¢ $133 4h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 54¢ $51 18h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 54¢ $17 18h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 54¢ $53 18h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 54¢ $38 18h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 54¢ $38 18h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 54¢ $117 18h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 54¢ $21 18h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $158 22h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $170 22h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 51¢ $24 24h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 51¢ $47 24h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 51¢ $51 24h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 51¢ $13 24h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 51¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.54 · official $211.54 (match) · 357 history records