Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x25cb…36db crypto 65 markets active 19h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+5%) realized +$321 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%60W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$301
economics 35% −$3
crypto 16% +$18
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 50 +2.1% -7.6% 96% 2% -9.3%
≤90d 60 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 2% -9.3%
all 64 +3.4% -6.5% 94% 3% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 3% -5.4%
10% -15.4% 3% -14.5%
15% -23.6% 3% -22.7%
20% -31.1% 3% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×71.92 per $1 lost it wins $71.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$321
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses60 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage138d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $2,480 −$3 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 26 $17 +$16 +97%
Will Solana reach $110 May 18-24? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 18-24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 43h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 43h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,509 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,511 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $2,477 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2,480 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 132 history records