Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25cc…6e6e sports 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$1
politics 20% −$2
other 16% −$5
world 7% $0
crypto 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -10.3%
all 130 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 113
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage163d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 27 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $229 +$1 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $327 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 13 $49 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $91 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $205 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $17 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $124 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 11 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $62 1h
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $63 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $48 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $49 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 21d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $40 28d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $39 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $52 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $53 43d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $78 130d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $78 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $50 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $50 130d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $73 130d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $74 130d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $32 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $40 130d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $32 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 130d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 130d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $18 130d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 130d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $18 130d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 130d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $78 130d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $78 130d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $80 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records