Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25cc…bc10 other 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-32%) realized −$31 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$61
sports 8% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 29% -52.2%
≤30d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 29% -52.2%
≤90d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 29% -52.2%
all 7 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 29% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 29% -52.2%
10% -16.1% 29% -56.8%
15% -24.2% 29% -61.0%
20% -31.7% 29% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +234%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.07 · official $49.07 (match) · 17 history records