Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
25 0x25cd…6234 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$290 (+0%) realized +$291 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%25W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$862per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$63
other 40% −$1,132
sports 10% +$1,408
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$2
crypto 2% $0
world 1% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 +0.3% -9.2% 6% 2% -9.4%
all 132 +2.6% -7.2% 19% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 13% -9.3%
10% -16.0% 13% -18.0%
15% -24.1% 11% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,214) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$15 · ×4.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage168d
Avg bet$862
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $667 $666 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,703 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $424 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,108 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,431 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,270 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,214 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,008 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,284 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,517 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,692 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $743 +$1 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,518 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,381 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,671 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 19 $892 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $915 +$1,118 +122%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,753 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,388 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,004 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,255 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,912 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 11 $956 −$956 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,529 −$3 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 28 $898 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $527 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $528 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 7h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $234 8h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 45h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $423 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 2d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $424 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $301 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $302 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $328 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $329 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $486 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $487 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $667 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,266 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,268 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,212 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,214 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,135 16d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,137 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $711 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.82 · official $665.82 (match) · 433 history records