Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25d0…935d world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 23% +$1
politics 13% $0
sports 8% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
economics 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 26 +0.1% -9.4% 65% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage465d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 19 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 14 $17 −$1 -7%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 10 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $25 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $25 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $4 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $5 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $23 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $37 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $2 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 24d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $15 354d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 356d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 99¢ $2 392d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1 409d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $15 423d
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? SELL No 100¢ $15 424d
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $15 424d
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? SELL No 99¢ $15 424d
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? BUY No 99¢ $15 425d
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $14 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records