Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25d5…11fc crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+6%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$38
other 9% $0
sports 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 78% 31% -1.9%
≤30d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 78% 31% -1.9%
≤90d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 78% 31% -1.9%
all 36 +4.5% -5.4% 78% 31% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 31% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 22% -11.3%
15% -22.8% 14% -19.9%
20% -30.3% 8% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$21 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$10 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$12 -61%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $14 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 49m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 125 history records