Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25d7…c2bf politics 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,701 (-55%) realized −$20,287 · open −$414
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$8,331
finance 22% −$7,106
world 16% −$1,728
sports 6% −$2,001
crypto 5% −$1,436
other 5% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +29.9% +17.6% 43% 43% +33.0%
≤30d 11 +8.1% -2.2% 45% 36% +21.3%
≤90d 40 -42.4% -47.9% 25% 20% -77.7%
all 62 -32.2% -38.7% 35% 26% -60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 26% -60.5%
10% -44.6% 19% -64.3%
15% -49.9% 18% -67.8%
20% -54.8% 11% -70.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$546) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$581 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$1,366
Realized−$20,287
Unrealized−$414
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions6
Markets (closed)62 / 68
History coverage608d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $939 $830 −$108 (-12%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $401 $247 −$154 (-38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 12¢ $110 $125 +$15 (+14%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $55 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $175 $13 −$162 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $37 +$181 +491%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $115 +$85 +73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 28 $186 +$11 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 28 $30 −$28 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 28 $30 −$26 -87%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $362 +$195 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 22 $263 −$243 -92%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 22 $320 −$320 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 22 $190 +$60 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 19 $187 −$137 -73%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $93 +$87 +95%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 02 $1,269 +$31 +2%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 30 $519 −$466 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 29 $2,633 −$2,528 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 28 $69 −$42 -60%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 27 $5,675 −$5,318 -94%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $745 −$636 -85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $1,292 −$1,085 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 27 $356 −$326 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $1,984 −$1,603 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 27 $868 −$773 -89%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $500 −$361 -72%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $33 −$32 -95%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 21 $58 −$55 -95%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $1,777 −$1,777 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $80 −$2 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 18 $200 +$40 +20%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $44 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $200 −$184 -92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $111 +$18 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 30 $100 −$89 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 29 $100 −$68 -68%
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet? Jan 05 $1,005 +$127 +13%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 02 $233 +$157 +68%
Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet? Jan 01 $2,476 +$62 +2%
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 30 $109 −$17 -15%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 30 $1,696 −$1,539 -91%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 23 $176 +$18 +10%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Nov 23 $276 +$6 +2%
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary? Nov 23 $117 +$46 +39%
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General? Nov 22 $1,913 +$706 +37%
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General? Nov 22 $546 −$546 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $58 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $30 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $30 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $65 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $115 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $110 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,365.52 · official $1,365.52 (match) · 1060 history records