Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25d9…2162
crypto · 251 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$488 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$292 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses139 / 111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2151.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 250 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$292
7 days+$292
14 days+$292
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 44¢ 40¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 83¢ 60¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$56 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$33 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $121 +$56 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$21 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$17 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$56 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $173 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $167 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $265 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $78 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $171 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$21 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $113 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $194 +$94 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $123 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$33 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$68 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $90 −$22 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $166 −$39 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$48 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $74 +$24 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $70 −$40 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$17 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$34 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$12 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $16 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $19 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 42% -8.1%
≤30d 250 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 42% -8.1%
≤90d 250 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 42% -8.1%
all 250 -1.7% -11.0% 56% 42% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2151.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 42% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 29% -16.9%
15% -27.3% 16% -24.9%
20% -34.5% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.64 · official $22.64 (match) · 2597 history records