Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x25db…28de
world · 47 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$50,445 -47%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39,717 · open +$6,274
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26,248
Realized−$39,717
Unrealized+$6,274
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)76 / 47
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2,302
Trades / day191.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 12 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,198
7 days−$38,057
14 days−$30,450
30 days−$39,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $8,179 $9,803 +$1,624 (+20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $2,276 $5,843 +$3,566 (+157%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $4,508 $3,646 −$861 (-19%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $1,643 $2,974 +$1,331 (+81%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $1,022 $1,952 +$931 (+91%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $361 $733 +$372 (+103%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $527 $412 −$115 (-22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $519 $334 −$185 (-36%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $210 $263 +$52 (+25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $438 $127 −$312 (-71%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $159 $89 −$70 (-44%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $132 $71 −$61 (-46%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $265 $0 −$265 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2,422 $0 −$2,422 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10,478 $0 −$10,478 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $308 $0 −$308 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $226 $0 −$226 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Jun 12 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10,478 −$10,137 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 12 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Jun 12 $4 +$811 +20346%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Jun 12 $226 +$2,594 +1149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30? Jun 12 $4 +$25 +715%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Jun 12 $81 −$60 -74%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? Jun 12 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $427 −$573 -134%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $19,781 −$19,781 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$40 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 12 $7,147 −$8,232 -115%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $876 −$865 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $107 −$104 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 12 $581 −$608 -105%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$5,197 +54344%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 12 $3,294 −$3,228 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$11 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Jun 12 $1,788 −$1,788 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Jun 12 $2,195 −$1,237 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $839 +$334 +40%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $2,309 +$236 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 12 $1,503 −$204 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $1,295 +$144 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $301 +$193 +64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 12 $325 +$8 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1,098 −$630 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $402 +$13 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $723 +$92 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $240 +$154 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 84% +$15,522
finance 16% −$9,603
other 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,200 2m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 14¢ $506 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $316 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $253 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $343 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $170 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 12m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $99 13m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $229 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $240 13m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $18 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 13m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $218 14m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 14m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $302 14m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 15m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 41¢ $651 15m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $525 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,013 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $421 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $540 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $36 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +58.4% +43.3% 32% 25% -70.5%
≤30d 76 +52.3% +37.8% 38% 25% -55.2%
≤90d 76 +52.3% +37.8% 38% 25% -55.2%
all 76 +52.3% +37.8% 38% 25% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover191.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.8% 25% -55.2%
10% +24.6% 21% -59.5%
15% ← realistic here +12.6% 20% -63.4%
20% +1.5% 17% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,248.10 · official $26,248.10 (match) · 3500 history records