Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25e3…ab76 crypto 786 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$5,381 (+42%) realized +$5,116 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%353W / 429L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$588
14 days−$533
30 days+$4,996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$341
other 18% −$1,097
crypto 17% +$147
politics 2% +$5
finance 1% +$61
weather 1% +$5,490
tech 1% +$216
world 1% −$37
economics 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -36.1% -42.2% 22% 22% -66.5%
≤30d 179 -2.3% -11.6% 32% 28% -18.1%
≤90d 679 -9.2% -17.9% 44% 37% -12.5%
all 782 -9.0% -17.7% 45% 37% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 37% -12.2%
10% -25.6% 26% -20.6%
15% -32.7% 18% -28.3%
20% -39.3% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$5,116
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses353 / 429
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions4
Markets (closed)782 / 786
History coverage104d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 39¢ 76¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+94%)
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? No 21¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? No 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +160%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 09 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 5? Jun 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 5? Jun 09 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
ITF Ontinyent: Neus Torner Sensano vs Maria Garcia Cid Jun 09 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $22 +$29 +131%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $23 +$47 +206%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 08 $23 +$33 +146%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 08 $23 +$67 +290%
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Jun 08 $24 +$46 +192%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldi Jun 04 $91 −$91 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elena Milutinovic vs Nadja Mladenovic Jun 04 $69 +$82 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $94 +$127 +136%
Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Chwalinska Jun 03 $65 +$82 +127%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 02 $23 +$29 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$24 +336%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$5 -90%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will CD Los Chankas vs. CU Técnica de Cajamarca end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 01 $23 +$11 +47%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $4 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 1h
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $15 26h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $3 41h
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 5d
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? BUY No 21¢ $23 5d
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 42¢ $53 5d
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 42¢ $3 5d
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 41¢ $6 5d
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 42¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 42¢ $2 5d
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 42¢ $8 5d
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 42¢ $2 5d
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 12¢ $23 5d
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 13¢ $23 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 31¢ $16 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 1¢ $17 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 1¢ $14 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $15 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 44¢ $6 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $2 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 6d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $70 6d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 31¢ $24 6d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 25¢ $2 7d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 26¢ $2 7d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 25¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.31 · official $19.31 (match) · 2510 history records