Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25e7…51d6 crypto 720 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$518 (-5%) realized −$518 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%313W / 407L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$67
14 days+$18
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$288
sports 39% −$337
other 9% −$9
politics 0% +$1
world 0% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +14.0%
≤30d 151 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 43% -9.9%
≤90d 321 -16.5% -24.4% 45% 39% -22.8%
all 720 -11.0% -19.4% 43% 40% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 40% -14.9%
10% -27.2% 36% -23.0%
15% -34.2% 32% -30.5%
20% -40.6% 26% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$518
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses313 / 407
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)720 / 720
History coverage245d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 720 Trades
no open positions (144 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$1 -10%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $15 +$10 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 +$6 +54%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$8 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$19 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$22 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 2h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 89¢ $21 3h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 94¢ $16 3h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 50¢ $20 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $15 7h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Chicago Sky 61¢ $10 8h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1446 history records