Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

25 0x25eb…2598 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$213 (+25%) realized +$211 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$170per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+25.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+38.9%	+25.6%	100%	100%	+24.7%
≤30d	4	+38.9%	+25.6%	100%	100%	+24.7%
≤90d	4	+38.9%	+25.6%	100%	100%	+24.7%
all	4	+38.9%	+25.6%	100%	100%	+24.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.6%	100%	+24.7%
10%	+13.6%	75%	+12.8%
15%	+2.6%	50%	+1.9%
20%	-7.4%	25%	-8.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$299

Realized+$211

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$170

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$297	$299	+$2 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$204	+$96	+47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$100	+$31	+31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$151	+$20	+13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$96	+$62	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$300	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$130	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$74	7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	76¢	$100	9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$151	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$158	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$96	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.24 · official $299.24 (match) · 10 history records