Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ec…b49e world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 54L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$15
sports 28% +$46
politics 15% −$1
other 10% +$4
economics 7% +$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 44 +2.1% -7.6% 20% 5% -9.8%
all 69 +1.8% -7.9% 22% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -9.1%
10% -16.7% 4% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 54
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage299d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $132 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $77 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $68 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $209 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $70 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $148 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $235 −$3 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $22 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $216 −$7 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $155 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $262 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $89 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $84 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $82 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $82 −$2 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $81 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $178 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $83 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $273 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $625 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $554 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $554 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $554 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $454 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 11 $75 +$46 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $168 +$11 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $17 −$7 -40%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $174 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 07 $191 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $67 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $28 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $59 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $48 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $18 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $66 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $66 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $66 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $49 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $66 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $66 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $62 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $0.00 (match) · 270 history records