Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ed…b701 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$958 (-22%) realized −$744 · open −$214
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$72
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$384
world 37% −$168
other 10% −$314
economics 5% −$210
finance 4% +$7
crypto 2% +$6
politics 1% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +144.1% +120.9% 50% 50% -25.8%
≤30d 4 +47.5% +33.5% 50% 25% -18.0%
≤90d 35 +7.9% -2.3% 46% 31% -19.3%
all 54 -18.4% -26.2% 39% 28% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 28% -26.5%
10% -33.2% 24% -33.5%
15% -39.7% 19% -39.9%
20% -45.6% 15% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$51 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$744
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage132d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Yes 11¢ $110 $5 −$105 (-95%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 35¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes $9 $0 −$9 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $500 +$9 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? May 10 $1 $0 +27%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 10 $4 +$6 +168%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $96 +$426 +442%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 05 $14 +$86 +614%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $71 −$70 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 02 $76 +$3 +4%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 13 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 13 $100 +$65 +65%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 13 $220 −$1 -1%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $100 −$98 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 11 $144 +$86 +60%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 05 $100 −$98 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 05 $18 +$22 +116%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Apr 05 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $55 +$15 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 05 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March? Apr 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $496 +$4 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $132 +$38 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 7? Mar 11 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Mar 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,500 on March 8? Mar 10 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $64 +$36 +55%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March? Mar 08 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 15) Mar 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $83 +$17 +21%
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31? Mar 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 33¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $20 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $51 8d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Sumudaerji 72¢ $30 42d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $1 42d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 42d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 98¢ $400 42d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 98¢ $100 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $523 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $96 46d
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? BUY Yes $10 46d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Jack Della Maddalena 50¢ $71 50d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $78 50d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $100 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes $10 59d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 59d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 22¢ $10 59d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns $40 59d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? BUY No $300 69d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 23¢ $10 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL Yes 69¢ $219 69d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 50¢ $100 70d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 51¢ $230 70d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 34¢ $44 75d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 75d
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early BUY Tatiana Suarez 60¢ $100 76d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 76d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY Yes 69¢ $220 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.74 · official $225.74 (match) · 112 history records