Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ed…ffe0 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,346 (+13%) realized +$9,456 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,498per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2,551est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days+$1,000
14 days+$2,140
30 days+$6,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$6,299
other 2% +$975
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +39.5% +26.2% 62% 62% +35.4%
≤30d 23 +83.6% +66.1% 52% 52% -0.2%
≤90d 34 +54.4% +39.7% 50% 47% +0.3%
all 34 +54.4% +39.7% 50% 47% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.7% 47% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here +26.3% 44% -9.3%
15% +14.1% 38% -18.1%
20% +2.9% 38% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +133% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,907 vs −$1,473 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$842
Realized+$9,456
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,551
Open positions14
Markets (closed)34 / 48
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1,498
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $186 −$182 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $26 −$26 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $149 +$181 +121%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $407 −$400 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $475 +$1,025 +216%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $415 +$118 +28%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $35 +$64 +184%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $332 +$220 +66%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $505 +$510 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $94 +$136 +146%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $314 +$1,279 +408%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $488 −$480 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $12,201 +$16,686 +137%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $94 −$91 -97%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $5 +$77 +1418%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $24,833 +$8,156 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $17,790 −$17,506 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $334 −$333 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $317 +$524 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $2,759 −$2,759 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $1,496 +$1,704 +114%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $500 +$741 +148%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) May 21 $306 +$4 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 21 $724 +$105 +15%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $158 −$157 -99%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $411 +$889 +216%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $3,270 −$1,158 -35%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $358 −$350 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $1,126 −$768 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 13¢ $9 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 18¢ $273 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $31 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 13¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 13¢ $133 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 12¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 12¢ $7 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 12¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 12¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 12¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 11¢ $21 1h
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $15 2d
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $93 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Tatjana Maria 23¢ $0 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Tatjana Maria 23¢ $26 2d
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $6 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 94¢ $0 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 94¢ $94 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $841.86 · official $841.86 (match) · 497 history records