Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ef…a545 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-43%) realized −$90 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$8
sports 50% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.6% -43.6% 50% 25% -55.1%
≤30d 4 -37.6% -43.6% 50% 25% -55.1%
≤90d 4 -37.6% -43.6% 50% 25% -55.1%
all 4 -37.6% -43.6% 50% 25% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 25% -55.1%
10% -49.0% 25% -59.4%
15% -53.9% 25% -63.3%
20% -58.4% 0% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$62 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Uzbekistan 1¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$6 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$11 +40%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $69 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $63 1h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 1¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $27 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $105 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.55 (match) · 7 history records