Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25ef…83cd crypto 1210 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$245 (-12%) realized −$228 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%246W / 929L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$13
14 days+$10
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$224
sports 25% +$26
other 9% +$75
weather 4% +$29
world 3% −$21
politics 2% −$28
tech 1% −$12
finance 0% −$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +199.9% +171.3% 43% 43% +86.0%
≤30d 621 -18.3% -26.1% 15% 15% -6.6%
≤90d 1167 -21.7% -29.2% 20% 19% -17.9%
all 1175 -21.2% -28.7% 21% 19% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 19% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 18% -25.5%
15% -41.7% 16% -32.7%
20% -47.4% 15% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses246 / 929
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1175 / 1210
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+254%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 55¢ 66¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-64%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 30¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+168%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 28¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jesse Delaney 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +982%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +786%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$8 +809%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1 +$4 +401%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1 +$8 +791%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $2 +$12 +688%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Tyler Zink Jun 02 $1 +$5 +503%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $1 +$5 +519%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$8 +771%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$5 +520%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 13¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $0 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney BUY Jesse Delaney 15¢ $1 1h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY No 11¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No $1 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 24h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 10d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 95¢ $6 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13d
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alicia Dudeney 19¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 20¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.07 · official $48.34 (match) · 3500 history records