Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x25ef…b2dd sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$110 (+5%) realized +$119 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%70W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$13
14 days+$39
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$40
other 23% +$7
crypto 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 52% -6.9%
≤30d 127 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 130 -8.1% -16.9% 54% 43% -6.8%
all 130 -8.1% -16.9% 54% 43% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 43% -6.8%
10% -24.8% 28% -15.8%
15% -32.1% 20% -23.9%
20% -38.7% 17% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses70 / 60
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)130 / 138
History coverage34d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Sharks 63¢ 54¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner MIBR Academy 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner WBT 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $33 −$28 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $56 +$84 +151%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $17 +$4 +25%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $29 −$22 -75%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $8 +$1 +13%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $13 −$7 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $37 −$24 -64%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $44 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $9 −$7 -83%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $7 +$15 +220%
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs Team Liquid (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 21 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -77%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $54 +$6 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $7 +$17 +242%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4 +$1 +22%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $109 −$28 -26%
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Jun 18 $19 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $34 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $19 +$11 +58%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 18 $19 +$11 +57%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $19 −$5 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$9 +233%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $19 +$6 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$8 +66%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $71 +$9 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 63¢ $10 44m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 52m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 53m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 53m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 53m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 54m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 54m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 54m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 7¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 7¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL roamsfiest 10¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL roamsfiest 11¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY roamsfiest 65¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY WBT 40¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 80¢ $11 26h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 80¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Entropy 100¢ $10 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 26h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Entropy 90¢ $9 27h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Donstu Esports 100¢ $9 27h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Donstu Esports 99¢ $4 29h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Donstu Esports 81¢ $4 29h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 76¢ $6 42h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 42h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.95 · official $106.95 (match) · 453 history records