Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25f2…0822 other 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,602 (+51%) realized +$9,667 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%31W / 112L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days−$129
14 days−$1,368
30 days+$2,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$10,864
crypto 10% −$1,285
world 4% −$337
sports 0% −$6
politics 0% −$11
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -52.4% -57.0% 14% 14% -30.5%
≤30d 44 +38.8% +25.6% 25% 25% +27.8%
≤90d 142 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 20% +35.5%
all 143 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 20% +35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 20% +35.5%
10% -19.2% 20% +22.5%
15% -27.0% 20% +10.7%
20% -34.2% 19% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$583 vs −$79 · ×7.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$9,667
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses31 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)143 / 148
History coverage111d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $200 $132 −$68 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+77%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $128 +$278 +218%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $72 −$63 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $103 −$83 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $99 −$96 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $197 −$195 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $133 −$132 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $271 −$268 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $309 +$200 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 11 $302 −$162 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $263 +$134 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $200 −$188 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $124 −$118 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $75 −$72 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $201 +$725 +361%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $256 +$1,150 +450%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $150 −$118 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $696 +$357 +51%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $109 −$99 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $207 −$198 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $4 +$42 +1000%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $172 +$1,898 +1104%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $161 +$535 +332%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $108 −$106 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 26 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $46 +$454 +992%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $104 −$8 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $42 +$78 +185%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 24 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $238 −$165 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $64 28m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 28m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 30m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 30m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 31m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 33m
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $406 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 22h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $104 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.83 · official $134.67 · 1398 history records