Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
25 0x25f8…ee1b politics 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$1
world 30% $0
sports 7% $0
other 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.8% -18.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -9.8% -18.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -9.8% -18.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 7 -6.0% -15.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage250d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -18%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 05 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 31 $19 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.06 · official $210.06 (match) · 16 history records