Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x25fe…aab1 crypto 143 markets active 5d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$18 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%21W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$56
other 25% −$30
world 19% −$3
sports 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
politics 1% −$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -68.6% -71.6% 0% 0% -71.3%
≤30d 9 -72.0% -74.7% 11% 11% -66.2%
≤90d 62 -59.4% -63.3% 11% 10% -46.4%
all 122 -37.8% -43.7% 17% 16% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 16% -34.0%
10% -49.1% 16% -40.3%
15% -54.0% 15% -46.1%
20% -58.5% 14% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 101
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)122 / 143
History coverage102d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Bill Gates charged by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$1 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $33 −$5 -15%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $65 +$21 +32%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$6 +563%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$4 +390%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 04 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 18d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.45 · official $39.45 (match) · 278 history records