Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x2603…510b sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$77 (-5%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%56W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$9
14 days+$28
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$18
other 17% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 54% -4.4%
≤30d 51 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 49% -12.3%
≤90d 105 +11.0% +0.5% 53% 43% -17.3%
all 105 +11.0% +0.5% 53% 43% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 43% -17.3%
10% -9.2% 39% -25.2%
15% -17.9% 30% -32.4%
20% -26.0% 19% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses56 / 49
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage51d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +84%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $10 +$10 +99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $20 −$3 -14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$7 +69%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $10 +$9 +87%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $8 +$3 +42%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $10 +$5 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $12 +$8 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $15 −$12 -80%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $10 +$3 +26%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $25 −$10 -41%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $10 −$9 -86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $10 −$1 -12%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $10 −$9 -85%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $26 +$2 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $10 +$2 +18%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $20 −$10 -51%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 20 $10 −$5 -47%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $20 −$1 -4%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $15 +$9 +58%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 16 $8 −$4 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 30m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 7h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $4 7h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $5 8h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 67¢ $16 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $10 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 81¢ $16 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 49¢ $10 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $7 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $12 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 28¢ $7 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $10 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 48¢ $9 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $2 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ $12 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.80 · official $14.80 (match) · 291 history records