Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2605…6b03 other 268 markets active 1d ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-7%) realized −$38 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%150W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$18
sports 19% −$2
world 16% −$19
politics 13% −$5
crypto 6% +$3
culture 1% +$2
finance 1% $0
tech 1% −$3
weather 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -68.9% -71.8% 0% 0% -58.6%
≤30d 12 -53.4% -57.8% 8% 8% -37.9%
≤90d 185 -27.2% -34.1% 46% 38% -38.5%
all 255 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 50% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 50% -15.6%
10% -22.4% 40% -23.6%
15% -29.9% 28% -31.0%
20% -36.7% 19% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses150 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)255 / 268
History coverage113d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 55¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? No 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 32¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? May 28 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 22 $7 +$3 +37%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? May 21 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 21 $2 −$1 -74%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -93%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 17 $5 $0 -4%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 +10%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 14 $1 $0 +22%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 12 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 09 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? May 07 $4 $0 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $2 $0 +24%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 04 $1 $0 +9%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 04 $3 +$1 +17%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03? May 01 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran strike Syria by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $2 +$2 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $3 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $4 $0 +10%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 25 $5 $0 +8%
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in Apr 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $3 $0 +16%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Apr 22 $2 $0 +8%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 21 $2 $0 +21%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third Apr 19 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 +$1 +146%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1 $0 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 20d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 24d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 24d
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $4 26d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 26d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 26d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 27d
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 27d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 27d
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 27d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 46¢ $5 27d
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in BUY No 18¢ $2 31d
Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31d
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Me BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 33d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 33d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 34d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL No 84¢ $1 34d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 67¢ $1 35d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.26 · official $24.23 (match) · 551 history records