Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x2606…8ee2 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$3
other 37% −$1
politics 3% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 0% -9.1%
all 24 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage454d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $32 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $35 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $36 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 $0 +7%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $29 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $33 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $18 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $18 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $21 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.91 · official $36.12 (match) · 95 history records