Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2606…b542 sports 312 markets active 15h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-5%) realized −$53 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%150W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$58
sports 40% −$14
other 3% −$9
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% +$3
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +6.8% -3.4% 55% 52% -11.7%
≤30d 260 +1.2% -8.4% 52% 46% -17.2%
≤90d 293 +3.8% -6.1% 51% 46% -15.8%
all 293 +3.8% -6.1% 51% 46% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 46% -15.8%
10% -15.1% 42% -23.8%
15% -23.3% 40% -31.2%
20% -30.8% 37% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses150 / 143
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions18
Markets (closed)293 / 312
History coverage40d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Over 46¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 90¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $2 +$1 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 +$2 +97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +89%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +64%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$1 -26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$4 +172%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 15h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 15h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner BUY Czechia 62¢ $1 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $2 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $3 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $2 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 21h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $2 21h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 38¢ $1 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 27¢ $1 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.97 · official $30.97 (match) · 708 history records