Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2608…8958 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,923 (-4%) realized −$1,956 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%63W / 34L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$557
14 days−$1,636
30 days−$2,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,377
other 12% −$171
crypto 2% −$623
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 23% -13.7%
≤30d 64 -13.6% -21.8% 64% 36% -16.0%
≤90d 97 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 41% -14.1%
all 97 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 41% -14.1%
10% -21.3% 23% -22.3%
15% -28.9% 14% -29.8%
20% -35.9% 7% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$621) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$211 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized−$1,956
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses63 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage50d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan South Africa 89¢ 96¢ $500 $540 +$40 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $250 $243 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $500 +$10 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $301 +$26 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $200 +$9 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1,078 +$30 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $302 +$23 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$180 -45%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $863 +$32 +4%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$26 -86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $301 −$63 -21%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$22 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1,404 +$127 +9%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $223 +$85 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $836 −$150 -18%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $222 +$110 +50%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $1,359 −$902 -66%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $502 +$62 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $301 +$22 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $332 +$63 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $621 +$1 +0%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $901 +$27 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1,126 +$112 +10%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $436 −$20 -5%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $178 +$20 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $373 +$131 +35%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,002 −$623 -62%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $608 +$84 +14%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $601 −$575 -96%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $102 −$101 -100%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $212 −$210 -99%
Will England win? Jun 07 $1,124 +$137 +12%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 07 $703 +$60 +9%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 06 $383 +$161 +42%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $198 −$195 -98%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $127 +$79 +63%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 05 $20 −$8 -40%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $300 +$12 +4%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $435 −$114 -26%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $523 +$82 +16%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 03 $491 +$19 +4%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $2,750 −$364 -13%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $899 −$103 -11%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $1,437 −$1,430 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $21 −$20 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $676 +$233 +34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $710 −$700 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $608 −$600 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $1,062 +$609 +57%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $1,304 +$173 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $7 13m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 93¢ $100 13m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 91¢ $301 18m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL India 100¢ $510 18m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $252 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 43m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 19¢ $20 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 82¢ $101 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 98¢ $327 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 98¢ $500 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 100¢ $209 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 97¢ $100 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $100 9h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $201 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 94¢ $100 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 97¢ $167 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 98¢ $500 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 98¢ $100 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 96¢ $100 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland SELL Ireland $6 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 95¢ $100 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $100 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 83¢ $159 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland $10 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 87¢ $166 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 78¢ $101 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 78¢ $201 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $104 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $118 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.79 · official $782.79 (match) · 574 history records