Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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26 0x260a…dbf6 crypto 911 markets active 21h ago coverage 136d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,713 (+1%) realized +$5,713 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate74%671W / 236L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 136d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,350
world 1% +$407
politics 0% +$20
other 0% +$11
sports 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -55.9% -60.1% 21% 8% -85.6%
≤30d 509 -5.5% -14.5% 87% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 645 -4.8% -13.9% 88% 1% -10.2%
all 907 -13.9% -22.1% 74% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 1% -9.8%
10% -29.5% 1% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -36.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -42.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$736) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$27 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,713
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses671 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)907 / 911
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$689
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 907 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+600%)
Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+199%)
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 −$23 -41%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $0 $0 +476%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 5? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 12 $0 $0 -88%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 3? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lee Jung-hyun win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Cheol-woo win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial E Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Choi Min-ho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cho Sangho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Min Hyung-bae win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oh Joong-ki win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial Ele Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 7? Jun 12 $436 −$436 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 3? Jun 12 $472 −$472 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 2? Jun 12 $472 −$472 -100%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $0 $0 -4%
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 12 $0 $0 +200%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 11 $0 $0 +188%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $32 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 57¢ $23 5d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $34 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 5d
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $51 5d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 6d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL No 0¢ $0 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 6d
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $57 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $7 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 3500 history records