Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x260e…73e9 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$4
crypto 36% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -32.2% -38.7% 62% 12% -29.4%
≤30d 8 -32.2% -38.7% 62% 12% -29.4%
≤90d 8 -32.2% -38.7% 62% 12% -29.4%
all 8 -32.2% -38.7% 62% 12% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 12% -29.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.6% 0% -36.2%
15% -49.9% 0% -42.4%
20% -54.8% 0% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$37 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 76¢ $678 $674 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $92 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $683 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.82 · official $673.82 (match) · 25 history records