Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x2614…71e2 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$486 (+15%) realized +$310 · open +$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%20W / 6L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +26.6% +14.6% 77% 77% +3.0%
≤30d 26 +26.6% +14.6% 77% 77% +3.0%
≤90d 26 +26.6% +14.6% 77% 77% +3.0%
all 26 +26.6% +14.6% 77% 77% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.6% 77% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here +3.6% 77% -6.9%
15% -6.4% 77% -15.9%
20% -15.6% 50% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$149 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 43¢ 81¢ $200 $376 +$176 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $183 +$104 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $284 −$275 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$128 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $204 +$89 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $205 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $197 +$151 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $205 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$81 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $86 +$60 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$29 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$88 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$36 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $69 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $69 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $69 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.60 · official $53.01 · 121 history records