Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

26 0x2615…547a other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$217 (+10%) realized +$198 · open +$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%9W / 17L

Drawdown78%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$669now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$142

7 days+$86

14 days+$230

30 days+$230

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-33.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-56.6%	-60.7%	24%	24%	-3.7%
≤30d	26	-26.6%	-33.6%	35%	35%	+3.5%
≤90d	26	-26.6%	-33.6%	35%	35%	+3.5%
all	26	-26.6%	-33.6%	35%	35%	+3.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.6%	35%	+3.5%
10%	-40.0%	35%	-6.4%
15%	-45.8%	35%	-15.4%
20%	-51.1%	23%	-23.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -69% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$94 vs −$36 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.37 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$669

Realized+$198

Unrealized+$19

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses9 / 17

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions5

Markets (closed)26 / 31

History coverage12d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown78%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	23¢	$150	$174	+$24 (+16%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	87¢	86¢	$150	$147	−$3 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$203	+$142	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 23	$23	−$13	-56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$303	+$406	+134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 22	$15	−$15	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 22	$38	−$38	-100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$71	−$71	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$110	−$110	-100%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 22	$20	−$16	-76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$46	+46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$145	+$94	+64%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$99	+$59	+60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$15	+$7	+48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$20	+$28	+140%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 17	$50	−$2	-4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$20	+$56	+276%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	59¢	$152	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	BUY Yes	87¢	$151	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	77¢	$151	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$9	5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$154	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$153	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$239	6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$145	7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$3	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$5	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$10	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$30	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$10	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$41	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$10	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$110	8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$48	9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	42¢	$48	9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$151	9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$51	9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$17	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $668.51 · official $668.51 (match) · 76 history records