Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2617…afc5 other 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$841 (+7%) realized +$796 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%125W / 82L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$138
world 24% −$46
crypto 14% +$94
politics 13% +$546
sports 6% +$71
economics 1% +$21
culture 1% +$15
tech 1% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +34.8%
≤30d 5 +15.7% +4.7% 80% 60% +11.7%
≤90d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 65% 52% -8.1%
all 207 +8.1% -2.2% 60% 52% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 52% -1.8%
10% -11.5% 38% -11.2%
15% -20.1% 28% -19.8%
20% -27.9% 22% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$3,624
Realized+$796
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses125 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)207 / 220
History coverage592d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,109 $2,110 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $404 $411 +$7 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $218 $218 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 89¢ 92¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 89¢ 88¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 45¢ 62¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+41%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 64¢ 76¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $26 +$23 +85%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $27 +$4 +14%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 07 $60 +$13 +22%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $20 +$27 +133%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 02 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 01 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 01 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $10 +$8 +84%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $15 +$4 +25%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Mar 22 $20 +$7 +34%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 22 $40 +$19 +47%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025? Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Mar 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February? Feb 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 28 $20 +$5 +27%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$11 +112%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 20 $49 +$10 +21%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m? Feb 19 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 02 $40 +$3 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Feb 01 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Feb 01 $40 +$25 +63%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Kristi Noem out by March 31? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $391 +$6 +2%
US bank failure by January 31? Jan 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jan 24 $40 +$11 +26%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Jan 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jan 07 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jan 07 $20 +$9 +47%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Jan 07 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jan 07 $37 +$6 +18%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Jan 07 $39 +$23 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $106 +$8 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 07 $81 +$43 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $140 +$16 +11%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 07 $191 +$24 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $272 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $2,002 1h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 89¢ $49 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $54 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $100 11d
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 11d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $73 11d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $13 46d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 46d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 48d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 48d
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4 48d
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $70 48d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 48d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 48d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 48d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $27 74d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw BUY Yes 67¢ $10 74d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $46 89d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $15 89d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $25 89d
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? SELL No 98¢ $27 89d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 110d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 110d
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 64¢ $13 115d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA SELL USA 60¢ $13 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,623.77 · official $3,623.69 (match) · 881 history records