Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2618…39f9 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,859 (+6%) realized +$2,959 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,248per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,392
30 days+$2,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$3,529
politics 9% −$1,206
crypto 3% −$109
other 2% +$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -19.0% -26.7% 67% 57% -4.5%
≤90d 36 -2.8% -12.1% 78% 53% -4.4%
all 36 -2.8% -12.1% 78% 53% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 53% -4.4%
10% -20.5% 31% -13.6%
15% -28.2% 17% -21.9%
20% -35.2% 6% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,167) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$697 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,959
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1,248
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Kia Tigers 98¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Danilina/Krunic vs Mihalikova/Nicholls Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1,736 −$1,725 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,427 +$321 +13%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 11 $2,167 +$260 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $7,028 +$1,819 +26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $6,304 +$724 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $5,566 +$736 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $183 −$183 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $1,009 +$452 +45%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 06 $1,007 −$957 -95%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 06 $5,018 +$793 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,292 +$1,725 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $2,813 +$482 +17%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $2,378 +$436 +18%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $1,944 −$1,641 -84%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 08 $61 −$54 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 08 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 08 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 08 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 04 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 04 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $25 +$4 +17%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 03 $7 +$10 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 03 $181 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 03 $161 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 03 $111 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 03 $92 +$27 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 03 $92 +$31 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 03 $90 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 98¢ $100 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 21¢ $2 7d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Danilina/Krunic vs Mihalikova/Nicholls BUY Mihalikova/Nicholls 77¢ $2 8d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 79¢ $1,736 8d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 62¢ $405 8d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 62¢ $607 8d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 88¢ $2,427 8d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz BUY Samsung Lions 89¢ $2,167 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 79¢ $7,028 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 89¢ $6,103 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 89¢ $201 12d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 88¢ $5,566 13d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos SELL LG Twins 4¢ $48 14d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos SELL LG Twins 3¢ $1 14d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos SELL LG Twins 3¢ $1 14d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers BUY KT Wiz 100¢ $18 14d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers BUY Samsung Lions 68¢ $1,009 14d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos BUY LG Twins 76¢ $1,007 14d
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 14d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers SELL SSG Landers 1¢ $0 14d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $5,018 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 65¢ $3,292 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $2,813 16d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $2,814 16d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 72¢ $377 17d
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? SELL No 7¢ $303 17d
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY No 44¢ $1,944 17d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 86¢ $2,001 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 81 history records